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BACKGROUND@#This study aimed to analyse the epidemiological characteristics of bacillary dysentery (BD) caused by Shigella in Chongqing, China, and to establish incidence prediction models based on the correlation between meteorological factors and BD, thus providing a scientific basis for the prevention and control of BD.@*METHODS@#In this study, descriptive methods were employed to investigate the epidemiological distribution of BD. The Boruta algorithm was used to estimate the correlation between meteorological factors and BD incidence. The genetic algorithm (GA) combined with support vector regression (SVR) was used to establish the prediction models for BD incidence.@*RESULTS@#In total, 68,855 cases of BD were included. The incidence declined from 36.312/100,000 to 23.613/100,000, with an obvious seasonal peak from May to October. Males were more predisposed to the infection than females (the ratio was 1.118:1). Children < 5 years old comprised the highest incidence (295.892/100,000) among all age categories, and pre-education children comprised the highest proportion (34,658 cases, 50.335%) among all occupational categories. Eight important meteorological factors, including the highest temperature, average temperature, average air pressure, precipitation and sunshine, were correlated with the monthly incidence of BD. The obtained mean absolute percent error (MAPE), mean squared error (MSE) and squared correlation coefficient (R) of GA_SVR_MONTH values were 0.087, 0.101 and 0.922, respectively.@*CONCLUSION@#From 2009 to 2016, BD incidence in Chongqing was still high, especially in the main urban areas and among the male and pre-education children populations. Eight meteorological factors, including temperature, air pressure, precipitation and sunshine, were the most important correlative feature sets of BD incidence. Moreover, BD incidence prediction models based on meteorological factors had better prediction accuracies. The findings in this study could provide a panorama of BD in Chongqing and offer a useful approach for predicting the incidence of infectious disease. Furthermore, this information could be used to improve current interventions and public health planning.
ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT:In order to explore the spatial clustering and influential factors of HFMD in Chongqing ,China from 2008 to 2012 ,spatial autocorrelation and spatial regression analysis (using the spatial lag model in this study ) were carried out using the HFMD data of 38 districts (counties) from 2008-2012 in Chongqing by OpenGeoDa ,and the HFMD case‐based data was collected from the Disease Supervision Information Management System of Chongqing Center for Disease Control and Preven‐tion .We found that the global Moran’s I coefficient of Chongqing from 2009 to 2012 was 0 .458 7 ,0 .567 5 ,0 .398 6 ,and 0 .606 0(P0 .05) .Results of multi‐factor spatial lag regression analysis demonstra‐ted that the incidence of HFMD was positively related with urban rate (β=1 .667 6 , P=0 .001 6) ,and negatively correlated with medical technical personnel per thousand (β= -0 .000 2 ,P=0 .019 8) .In general ,the incidence of HFMD was found ge‐ographically clustered in Chongqing from 2009 to 2012 which was significantly influenced by urban rate and medical technical personnel per thousand population ,and while the urban rate was the main factor .